The Malaysian Insight

INDIAN voters will be the kingmakers in the Port Dickson by-election, a qualitative survey by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) has found.

PKR president-elect Anwar Ibrahim has 80% of Indian votes in the parliamentary constituency, and can swing the remaining 20% in his favour, IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman told The Malaysian Insight.

Indians comprise 22%, or 17,000, of Port Dickson voters. A sizeable number of them live in Lukut and Chuah, two of the five state constituencies under Port Dickson.

Redzuan said Anwar could swing the remaining 20% by increasing engagement with the community – which is exactly what he has done in recent days, attending cultural events dressed in traditional clothing and dancing along to Tamil songs.

“As it is, Indian support is already at 80%. With the singing and dancing every night, it could be higher come election day,” said Redzuan.

He said Anwar has been able to connect with the Indian community in part because he is in line to be the next prime minister under a Pakatan Harapan succession plan.

The expectation is high that an MP who is prime minister will be able to develop the seaside town, which has lacklustre tourism and a lack of job opportunities.

The prime minister-in-waiting is up against six candidates – former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad, air force veteran Mohd Nazari Mokhtar of PAS, Anwar’s former aide and sodomy accuser Mohd Saiful Azlan Bukhari, and three other independents.

The Indian vote will be the kingmaker as Malays are likely to be split between Anwar, Isa and Nazari, while there are concerns that the Chinese vote, though leaning towards Anwar, may not be enough if outstation voters do not return on polling day.

Redzuan said IDE’s survey was conducted via face-to-face interviews with 1,084 Malay, Chinese and Indian respondents over three days, from September 28 to 30. Surveyors covered the five state seats and 32 polling districts in Port Dickson, which has a total of 75,770 registered voters.

The poll did not take into consideration 40% of registered voters living outside Port Dickson.

The seat was an MIC stronghold before PKR wrested it in 2008.

Redzuan said ex-Umno man Isa will not fare well among Indians, as he is unable to offer voters much compared with a candidate from the ruling government.

“Chinese and Indian voters will likely not vote for Isa. Previously, he was with Umno, and the party could give them something. But now, they get nothing if they vote for him. At least PH can promise them something.”

The Universiti Selangor vice-chancellor said Anwar might even be able to draw some Umno and MCA votes, as MIC is not contesting the by-election.

“Umno and MCA used to vote for MIC during the Barisan Nasional era, but now, they will vote for Anwar or boycott the polls. They will likely not vote for PAS or Isa.”

Besides Indians, Port Dickson’s electorate comprises 43% Malays, Chinese (33%) and others (2%).

Early voting kicked off this morning, while polling day has been set for Saturday. – October 9, 2018.