The Malaysian Insight

THE Port Dickson poll on Saturday will buck the trend of low voter turnout in recent by-elections because of the constituents’ excitement at getting the future prime minister as their MP, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) predicts.

IDE predicted, based on a qualitative survey, a voter turnout of 55% to 60% and a winning margin of more than 30,000 for Anwar Ibrahim, who is in a seven-cornered fight.

IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said this was because Anwar was presenting himself as the next prime minister, which had raised voters’ hopes and expectations of what he could do for the federal seat.

“If there is a voter turnout of 60%, it will be good enough. Anwar will get a majority of more than 30,000.

“One of the main reasons we found that people will vote for Anwar is because he will be the next prime minister. They are proud that the PM will come from Port Dickson,” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insight.

The survey was conducted on 1,084 respondents living in Port Dickson via face-to-face interviews three days before nominations for the by-election on September 30. All five state seats and 32 polling districts in Port Dickson, which has 77,750 voters, were covered in the survey.

The survey did not account for some 40% of the registered voters living outside Port Dickson.

Redzuan said the “Anwar factor” would boost the voter turnout above that of the three previous by-elections in the state seats of Sungai Kandis, Seri Setia and Balakong, which were all below 50%.

The Universiti Selangor vice-chancellor said Anwar’s opponents stood little chance. PAS is likely to retain slightly less than the votes it secured in GE14 while former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad would get the traditional voters.

“Anwar’s closest competitors are PAS and Isa. You need to look at the candidates and the parties they represent.

“Isa does not represent Barisan Nasional. From our survey, BN voters will shy away from Isa,” Redzuan said of the former Umno man and ex-Felda chairman who has been embroiled in scandal. 

Umno and BN are not contesting the by-election.

Isa is standing as an independent and Redzuan said history showed that independents did not fare well. Any support for him will come from the Bangan Pinang and Linggi state seats, where he has family.

PAS, Redzuan said, would be “lucky” to get 5,000 votes. PAS had obtained 6,549 votes in a three-cornered fight for the seat in GE14.

“In GE14, some voters did not like Barisan Nasional but also would not vote for Pakatan Harapan as the PKR candidate, Danyal Balagopal Abdullah is not a Malay. 

“The alternative was PAS. So, they voted PAS not by default but because they did not like other two candidates. But this time around, there is Anwar,” Redzuan.

As for the other independents, Redzuan said they would likely lose their deposits.

The biggest obstacle for Anwar to win handsomely are voters who live outside Port Dickson and who might be reluctant to come back on polling day. This would mainly concern Chinese voters, Redzuan said.

“The problem with the Chinese vote is not the lack of support but because many of them are younger voters, living and working outside.

“Many of them are working in Singapore. I don’t think those working in Singapore will come back. But those in places nearby like Seremban and Nilai will come back and vote,” he said.

Boost from Dr Mahathir

Redzuan also felt that Anwar would be able to win over army voters who were casting their ballots in early voting today.

This is because Pakatan Harapan is now the federal government and there is no more the pressure of having to support Barisan Nasional.

“Barisan Nasional is not a factor anymore. With the new government, things have changed. The military votes will go to Anwar, about 7,000 votes,” Redzuan said. 

The appearance of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad in Port Dickson to stump for Anwar will also bolster the former deputy prime minister’s chances. 

“It will even push Umno supporters to vote for Anwar.

“With the presence of Dr Mahathir and Daim (Zainuddin), it kills all the rumours of a plot against Anwar,” he said, referring to the Council of Eminent Persons chairman who was speculated to be plotting against Anwar’s succession of Dr Mahathir as prime minister.

Voters in Port Dickson are 43% of Malays, 33% of Chinese, 22% of Indians and 2% others.

In GE14, the PKR candidate Danyal Balagopal Abdullah won 36,225 votes, defeating the BN and PAS candidates who received 18,515 and 6,594 votes, respectively.

To boost voter turnout, PKR is embarking on a campaign called “Be a part of history” in the final days ahead of polling.

“They (PKR) are using the tagline to tell voters that they will be part of history,” Redzuan said.

Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun who is from PKR, will also be sending letters to private sector companies urging them to let their employers return to vote. – October 9, 2018.