The Malaysian Insight

SOME things don’t change. Cameron Highlands is likely to return another Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate to Parliament rather than a Pakatan Harapan (PH) representative tomorrow.

And ruling governments always dismiss the opposition as useless and not able to deliver the goods.

Case in point is Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad dismissing BN/Umno as dying and unable to do much for the voters if they persist in choosing Ramli Md Nor in Malaysia’s second parliamentary by-election since the May 9 general elections.

Independent pollster Ilham Centre has already called it for BN and DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang has just said it will take the miracle of returning outstation voters for PH to capture the federal seat from BN.

For the record, the seat created in 2004 has always been with BN’s MIC party. MIC has given it up to BN’s direct candidate Ramli, a former police officer and a member of the Orang Asli community there.

That and the fact that Cameron Highlands is in BN-ruled Pahang will suggest it has been, pardon the pun, an uphill battle for PH to win the constituency known for its rolling vegetable farmlands, tea farms and oil palm estates.

Also, it is more a rural area of farmers, farm workers and Orang Asli who have generally been well-looked after by the former ruling government BN. PH won eight months ago and have yet to show their mettle in running Malaysia notwithstanding having Dr Mahathir as the prime minister.

Anecdotal reports say PH has had it tough in the constituency despite the low majority of just 597 garnered by BN candidate C. Sivarraajh in the last general elections.

Sivarraajh was later stripped of the win and disqualified from contesting the seat for five years after an election court found the electoral victory tainted by voter bribery. MIC then agreed to let BN find another candidate for the by-election.

The reality of the May 9 polls was that BN lost it rather than PH winning it. BN voters did not cast their ballots while PH supporters went out in full force to throw out the Najib government that was accused of financial mismanagement with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal and for introducing more taxes.

The end result was PH won and formed the government, with greater support in urban areas across the peninsula and in the Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak.

But the Malay heartland states of Perlis, Pahang stood with BN/Umno and PAS kept Kelantan while winning Terengganu. Those victories were due to strong support for the then ruling parties as Dr Mahathir’s Bersatu and allies Amanah could not break the political stranglehold of Umno and PAS.

PKR, the largely Malay but ostensibly multiracial party, has never made much headway in the rural constituencies while DAP is always seen as a Chinese chauvinist party – an image that persists even in this Cameron Highlands campaign, added with its leaders harping about Pahang’s debts.

The man seen as the Achilles’ Heel for BN in GE14 that caused the coalition’s historic defeat, former prime minister Najib Razak, is now their greatest champion.

One, because Najib is from Pahang and was once its menteri besar, and two, the endless vilification by PH instead of talking up their future plans is pushing voters who abstained on May 9 to openly consider voting for BN.

Hence, the PH need for a “miracle”, as mentioned by Kit Siang, for outstation voters to return to the highlands and vote in the ruling federal coalition.

That is not likely to happen, for the same voters will return two weeks later for the long Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations. And they have yet to see any progress, programmes or plans from PH since May 9.

May 9 might have seen a tsunami that kicked out an alleged kleptocrat but there has not been enough ripples to make people happier – even in Cameron Highlands. – January 25, 2019.

* Jahabar Sadiq runs The Malaysian Insight.