The Malaysian Insight

MALAY voters are reportedly unhappy with Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) yet a change in government may be a long way off, say political analysts.

This, they said, is because of the fragmentation among Malay parties in the new opposition coalition – Pakatan Harapan (PH).

While former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), is part of PH and his presence has galvanised support in traditional Umno strongholds, it is still an uphill task to capture Putrajaya.

“Bersatu’s strength anchors on Dr Mahathir. It has managed to attract Umno supporters as many regard him as a national hero, due to history books and government training courses,” said research firm Ilham Centre director Hisommuddin Bakar.

“Many Malay voters cannot accept the public shaming of Dr Mahathir by the current administration under Prime Minister Najib Razak.”

The socio-political research outfit conducted a study between November 2016 and January and its findings showed that a 5% protest vote among Malay voters could end BN’s six-decade rule.

The Dr Mahathir effect is most pronounced in Felda areas, where thousands are turning up at his speeches. While the Felda settlers’ pressure group, ANAK, led by Mazlan Aliman, had problems penetrating the traditional Umno areas, many have welcomed Dr Mahathir warmly.

Hisommuddin’s findings were consistent with a survey done by another research outfit, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

The high cost of living, goods and services tax (GST) and poor management were the major complaints cited by voters unhappy with the current administration, said IDE chief executive Prof Dr Redzuan Othman.

“These three issues received the highest votes in our survey of Selangor voters.

“Some of them feel that Umno no longer looks after their interests,” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insight.

“Although the old Umno is always seen as the Malay saviour and protector, it is not fulfilling those roles now,” he added, citing a higher exposure among today’s voters to information from social media and issues, such as 1Malaysia Development Berhad.

Another researcher said while Bersatu’s emergence will have an impact on Umno, a lot also depends on its perception among Malay voters.

If Bersatu cosies up too much to DAP, it will turn off some Malay voters, said Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian.

“While some voters will lean towards Bersatu because they are unhappy with Najib’s leadership and a certain amount of sympathy for Dr Mahathir, they still remain sceptical of DAP,” said Ibrahim.

Hisommuddin said PKR’s strengths lie in their incarcerated leader Anwar Ibrahim and younger leaders, such as Rafizi Ramli.

But since Anwar’s jailing in 2015, some voters have drifted away from the party. As such, PKR has to choose its battles wisely and pick issues which impact on voters directly, said Hisommuddin.

PKR’s biggest problem is its reliance on other Malay parties, such as Parti Amanah Negara and PAS.

But with PAS out of the PH coalition, it only has Amanah to rely on, which is an untested party. This is also complicated by Amanah’s demographics, which are similar to PAS’s.

“I think what Husam Musa (Amanah) is doing in Kelantan now is important. Amanah needs to challenge PAS in opening new branches, increasing its membership and ceramah,” said Hisommuddin.

“In Kelantan, there is even live streaming of Husam’s programmes on social media and this aggressive move exposes more Malay voters to Amanah and gives it some hope,” he added.

For PAS, it remains on its own as the sole Islamic party where its strength is also its weakness.

Before this, PAS had relied on those who were disenchanted with Umno to join its ranks. But today, PAS has to contend with not one but three other parties –  Bersatu, PKR, Amanah – for the protest vote.

“They had a glimmer of hope when they held the RUU355 (motion to amend the Shariah Court Act) gathering in Kuala Lumpur recently,” said Hisommuddin.

But it suffered a setback when BN pulled out its support for RUU355 last week. It also lost non-Muslim support with RUU355, said the researcher.

“The hudud issue does not gel with many voters who are more concerned about bread-and-butter issues, such as higher cost of living.” – April 5, 2017.