The Malaysian Insight

PAS and Umno are confident their pact can secure them at least 109 parliamentary seats, based on their performance in the previous two general elections, said party sources.

With the help of political allies in Sabah and Sarawak, they believe they can secure at least two to three more seats to retake Parliament in the 15th general election.

Their confidence in achieving this target is a driving force behind their move to forge a formal pact. PAS, at its annual congress yesterday, approved the alliance.

The analysis is based on the following:

* Umno lost 34 parliamentary seats in GE14 from a high of the 88 seats it won in GE13. PAS went from 21 seats in GE13 to 18 in GE14.

* If both parties can reverse these losses and reclaim the seats, between them, they will have a total of 109 seats.

* With the help of the independent Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), which holds 19 parliamentary seats, the PAS-Umno pact will have enough to push Pakatan Harapan back into the opposition.

Strategists in the two Malay parties believe that victories in these seats are possible due to widespread dissatisfaction with PH among Malays, who voted for the ruling coalition in GE14.

The supposed protest votes in Umno seats forced the Barisan Nasional lynchpin to lose the constituencies in the elections on May 9 last year.

Similarly, the same would happen to PAS and allow it to win back three seats.

Some of the losses in these Malay-majority seats, such as Pokok Sena, Kulim-Bandar Baharu, Padang Serai, Balik Pulau, Parti Buntar, Tambun, Lumut and Sg Besar, were due to multi-candidate fights between Umno, PAS and PH, which split the Malay vote and allowed PH to cruise to victory.

PAS and Umno, by ensuring one-to-one contests with PH, will be able to collectively pool their votes to reclaim these constituencies.

An Ilham Centre survey of Malay voters last August found that 11% of respondents would change their GE14 votes if allowed to do so.

Ilham executive director Azlan Zainal said the crucial 11% swing allowed PH to defeat Umno-BN in GE14.

If this percentage returned to Umno, PH would lose Putrajaya.

In another survey published in January, Ilham found that nearly 60% of Malays were dissatisfied with the new government’s performance.

Umno and PAS are betting that a campaign based on amplifying PH’s so-called “failure” to protect Malay and Islamic institutions will pull Malays back in their direction.

“We believe that if we can get the numbers in the peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak parties will join us,” said a source with knowledge of the plan.

The parties that formed GPS were part of the old Sarawak BN chapter, which Umno led. It is believed that they will support another Umno-led coalition in Putrajaya. – June 23, 2019.