The Malaysian Insight

TO Umno and PAS, they are the government-in-waiting poised to take over Putrajaya when snap elections be called next year.

This message has been drilled into the minds of its election machinery and grassroots by no less than the deputy presidents of the two parties Mohamad Hasan (Umno) and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man (PAS).

Political analysts, however, said these “theories” are merely desperate attempts to rally the troops.

At worst, it is a self-serving fantasy t to cover up the fact that they could lose the next general election if the current government serves out its five-year term.

Umno and PAS hypothesise that snap elections would be called next year due to what they said was irreconcilable infighting in the Pakatan Harapan ruling coalition.

They expect Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his successor Anwar Ibrahim to clash, and believe this would lead to the prime minister calling for fresh polls to secure a new mandate.

PAS and Umno, who are expected to forge a formal alliance soon, believe that with the government’s current dismal approval ratings, they should be able to seize Putrajaya.

A survey by pollster Merdeka Centre on Pakatan’s first-year anniversary found the government’s approval rating was at 39% while Dr Mahathir’s popularity had plunged from 79% to 46%.

“I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t heard that the elections are around the corner,” said Umno Supreme Council member Dira Abu Zahar.

“The infighting in PH is an open secret. But whether or not (elections) are going to happen, we can’t truly say.”  

PAS vice-president Dr Idris Ahmad is similarly convinced that the conflicting statements coming out of Putrajaya would eventually lead to PH’s collapse.

“The economy is also getting worse, people are not getting jobs, the stock market is down and the public is angry,” Idris said, adding that under such circumstances, PH will call for an election next year.

Who’s really in trouble?   

“But it is this situation that would motivate PH to use up its remaining four years fixing the problems and shoring up support before calling for another general election,” said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).

“The opposition wants an election next year because it would be advantageous to them, because they think they can win but it is not so for PH.

“It’s advantageous for them to use their remaining four years to fulfil their election promises and get back public support. Then they will have a good chance of getting re-elected.”

Political scientist at International Islamic University, Tunku Mohar Tunku Mokhtar said because Umno and PAS are not used to internal criticism, they mistake what is happening in PH for instability.

“While PH has its own problems, I think at the moment, it is still stable. In addition, (the opposition) is trying to convince itself that the succession plan isn’t going to work,” he said.

Mazlan of UTM said the mindset shift that occurs when a coalition makes it into the corridors of power will likely prevent its collapse even if infighting in PH reaches boiling point.

He pointed out that when PAS broke ties with DAP and PKR in 2015, that did not lead to a collapse of the Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government.

“PAS, DAP and PKR stayed in government until the elections. (PH) has worked too hard to reach this point to want the (federal) government to collapse,” said Mazlan.   

Instead, the political party who is in real trouble, said Mazlan, is Umno, due to the millions in corrupt money it had allegedly received from its scandal-ridden ex-president Najib Razak.  

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) recently revealed that RM212 million of RM270 million stolen from 1MDB went to Umno officials and individuals.

“If these allegations are proved in court, it would mean that Umno had committed serious crimes and this could lead to it being disbanded. So in reality, this is why Umno wants to regain power as soon as possible.” – AFP, July 4, 2019.