The Malaysian Insight

SURVEYS have shown that a majority of Malays feel positive about Umno-PAS unity, but this does not mean they will ditch the Pakatan Harapan government, said political analysts.

The decision of Malaysia’s biggest parties to end decades of enmity is attractive because the idea of unity and solidarity is better than divisive politics, said pollster Ibrahim Suffian.

Also, both parties command the bulk of Malay support due to their long history and strong network in the community, where they have been village elders and religious officials.

This was why they got more than 60% of the Malay vote in the 14th general election, despite not being able to win federal power.

“The support levels for the Malay-Muslim nationalist ideals that Umno and PAS promote correspond with the level of support both parties received in GE14, which was about two-thirds of Malay voters,” said the Merdeka Centre executive director.

However, PH can still seize the national narrative to pull support away from Umno-PAS if it can boost economic growth, improve the delivery of government services, and deal with bread-and-butter issues.

Another polling expert, Kamarul Baharin Zahid, said although Umno and PAS still command much support among Malays, it does not automatically translate into votes in a general election.

On paper, based on GE14 results, Umno and PAS can pool the votes they received in last year’s elections and defeat PH in at least 30 parliamentary seats.

“However, every election is different, and has different dynamics and narratives. It’s not as simple as one plus one equals two,” said Kamarul Baharin of Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

In GE15, PH will campaign as the government, while Umno-PAS will be the opposition – different from the last elections, when Umno was part of the then Barisan Nasional government.

If PH delivers on its promises and fixes the country’s problems, said Kamarul Baharin, it can campaign as an administration that has shown more success than Umno and PAS.

“A majority of the people surveyed are dissatisfied with the state of the economy and their livelihood,” he said, referring to the findings of IDE’s latest polls in June and July.

“But, a majority of them are also confident that PH can solve the country’s problems, so if the government achieves this, they can still prevail over Umno-PAS.”

Nationalism on the rise

Umno and PAS signed a charter on Saturday, promising to work together as an opposition front to defeat PH come the next elections.

Their leaders have boasted that the combined support for the parties will allow them to take over eight states and at least 127 parliamentary seats.

An IDE survey showed a similar possibility, with the Umno-PAS pact capable of capturing at least 29 seats should a snap general election be called.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the charter called for a “national consensus” among all communities in Malaysia. However, in his speech before its signing, he said the Malay-Muslim agenda will be the charter’s central pillar.

Umno secretary-general Annuar Musa, meanwhile, said the charter will promote a Malay-Muslim narrative without sidelining other groups.

A 2018 survey of Malays by Ilham Centre found that a majority of those polled had a tendency to support conservative Malay nationalist narratives.

It also found that PH’s progressive take on Islam, such as its branding of Muslims leaders as “Muslim democrats”, was difficult for Malays to understand.

“The PH government has to portray a more centre-right image, and not progressive, because it can be mistaken for being liberal,” said the think-tank.

However, it said, the problem is that PH cannot trend to the same position of PAS and Umno.

“Although Malay nationalism is at a higher level now, we expect Muslim nationalism to rise in the future,” it concluded in its report.

Ibrahim and Kamarul Baharin said PH should not have to play PAS and Umno’s game of being more nationalistic just because it is popular among Malays.

Umno and PAS’ support levels among the community stand at between 37% and 40%, and 18% and 20%, respectively, said Kamarul Baharin, adding that the levels are stagnant.

“For voters, it’s still too early to determine whether Umno and PAS are a viable alternative to PH.”

Ibrahim said older voters are most likely to cast their ballots based on appeals to race and religion.

“However, in GE15, we are going to see more young voters, who care more about jobs and the economy. PH should focus on this group, as well as women, who are more pragmatic in their voting. And, it has to do this now.” – September 17, 2019.