The Malaysian Insight

OUTSTATION voters are the group that will make or break Pakatan Harapan’s Tanjung Piai election campaign, said one of the coalition’s top strategists.

Liew Chin Tong of PH component DAP said these voters who worked and resided outside the south-eastern Johor constituency were key to Pakatan’s victory in the state in the 14th general election.

Liew estimated that half of the some 53,000 registered voters in Tanjung Piai lived and worked in the big cities and had to return home to vote.

“PH won big in Johor – 18 out of 26 parliamentary seats– because those who resided in Kuala Lumpur, Johor Baru and Singapore came back to their villages to vote to oust Najib,” said Liew, referring to former prime minister Najib Razak.

“So if they don’t return, if not many voters come back to vote, it will be a big challenge for Pakatan,” said Liew who heads DAP’s political education bureau.  

“I think we are going into this by-election as an underdog. It’s not easy.”

The voter profile of Tanjung Piai is similar to that of Cameron Highlands, another semi-urban by-election which PH lost in January.

Barisan Nasional was able to retain Cameron Highlands by 3,238 votes, a bigger winning majority than during GE14. The low 68% voter turnout was likely due to many outstation constituents’ failure to return home to vote.

“The Tg Piai situation is almost the same as Cameron Highlands, in that the former government is close to those who stay and work there. They have their networks among the villagers, in mosques and in the surau.

“It’s not going to be easy for PH going into a semi-urban by-election,” said Liew, adding that the public sentiment currently did not favour the ruling coalition.

In the general election, Bersatu’s Dr Md Farid Md Rafik beat MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng, who had held the Johor parliamentary seat for two terms, by a narrow 524 votes. Nordin Othman of PAS polled 2,962 votes.

PAS and Umno, BN’s lynchpin party, have since inked a pact to work together with the aim of consolidating their votes, especially in marginal seats such as Tanjung Piai.

Political analysts predict that issues such as teaching khat to Primary Four pupils and the reluctance to deport controversial preacher Dr Zakir Naik will dampen support for PH from the non-Muslims, its core supporters.

The constituency has 53,528 voters, 57% of which are Malay, 42% Chinese and the remainder Indian.

Liew has not written off Tg Piai, however.

“Is there a possibility of winning? There is a possibility because now it’s different. PH is the government now, which is different. But I feel we have to work really, really hard as this is a difficult contest.” – October 20, 2019.