The Malaysian Insight

THE Tg Piai by-election will be a referendum on the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government’s performance so far after winning federal power in May 2018, said analysts and observers.

They told The Malaysian Insight the battle is going to be fought on the back of a slew of issues which have dogged PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) over the last few months.

However, they said both sides do not have a clear advantage as they line up at the starting point on Saturday.

Political analyst Cheah See Kian said Tg Piai is a multi-racial constituency with MCA having the upper-hand in this contest after it named Wee Jeck Seng as its candidate.

He said even though the PH candidate, Bersatu’s Karmaine Sardini, also contested in Pontian at the 14th general election, he is old and Chinese voters may be unfamiliar with him.

Cheah said the same could be said for Malay voters as he would have done work including dispensing aid to the community.

The analyst said even as the local Umno chapter had demanded to contest, MCA was the right choice, and with PAS’ support, racial and religious issues may not be effective in the by-election.

Umno may spin the decision to show that the charter it signed with PAS was inclusive and it also catered to the non-Malay community, he said.

The polls are the 9th by-election after GE14, with the Sg Kandis, Balakong, Seri Setia and Semenyih state by-elections in Selangor, Port Dickson parliamentary by-election and the Rantau state by-election in Negri Sembilan, Cameron Highlands parliamentary by-election in Pahang, and the Sandakan parliamentary by-election in Sabah preceding it.

PH’s record so far is five wins to three losses, with BN prevailing in Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Rantau. Umno and PAS had worked together, resulting in three by-election victories.

The two parties then made their pact official by signing a cooperation charter on September 14, and the Tg Piai by-election will be their first contest since inking the deal. Winning the seat will be a shot in the arm for the partnership, more so with MCA providing the candidate.

DAP’s Pekan Nanas assemblyman Yeo Tung Siong said the ruling coalition is at a disadvantage in Tg Piai.

Yeo told The Malaysian Insight PH will be hard-pressed to explain the plan to introduce khat lessons in vernacular schools and to a lesser degree its failure to ratify both International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD) and the Rome Statute will affect the Chinese voters.

He said besides national issues, some local issues are also causing a backlash from constituents, including the death of fish stock at farms, which is causing industry players to attack the government.

One of the business owners, Lim Thiam Hock, said the main objective of GE14 was to depose BN, and he did not vote for the then ruling coalition as a result.

Now, however, he said he will vote for BN.

“The government keeps saying it wants to help businesses, and before the late MP Md Farid Md Rafik died, it was announced that two offshore fish farms will be developed. But now because of the by-election it has been put on hold, and the government also said it will only be decided after the polls.

“We are not falling for it, if you wanted to help the fishermen then you do not need to wait, you can do it now. Why wait until after the by-election?” Lim said.

Cheah said BN is likely to win the seat as its candidate will have the full backing of the Umno-PAS pact, and their machinery is nothing to scoff at.

“Malays have not disappointed BN in this constituency. It is a constituency for MCA. They lost in the last elections because of the anti-BN sentiments,” said Cheah.

He said if MCA has another seat, it means that MCA has the opportunity to turn over and would not be forgotten by the voters.

A DAP leader admitted that the party’s problems are both internal and external. While it is demonised by BN, the recent statements by Selangor assemblyman Ronnie Liu has not helped the party

“We also heard some grassroots response in Tg Piai. Many voters are disappointed with PH, and they are likely to be swayed towards BN,” he said.

Cheah said if MCA managed to win, it shows that the party can get back on its own feet, has not been forgotten by voters and is not “dead” as promoted by DAP.

The Tg Piai by-election will begin on November 2 with nominations while the polling day will be on November 16.

Besides BN and PH, Gerakan will also field its deputy secretary-general Wendy Subramaniam.

Cheah believes that Gerakan thinks that MCA will not send people to battle, thinking that it can whip up the support of Chinese and Indian voters.

“Gerakan had only one seat in Johor, the Simpang Renggam seat, but it was lost in the last general election,” he said.

In the last elections, Bersatu’s Md Farid Md Rafik defeated Wee by 524 votes in a three-cornered battle involving PAS’ Nordin Othman. – November 1, 2019.