The Malaysian Insight

PAKATAN Harapan now rests on “very narrow” Malay support due to a resurgence in identity politics and lack of trust among the various ethnicities, said Merdeka Centre.

In its report this month, titled “Malaysia Political Developments and Trajectories Update”, the pollster said public support for government policies remains buffeted by socio-economic issues.

“Confidence rose momentarily after the 2018 general election, but declined after the introduction of the sales and services tax, cuts in subsidies, delays in realising election pledges and slowing economy.

“The pace of change is slow, but the news cycle is very fast, creating the impression that PH is not moving fast enough.

“The opposition is consolidating with Barisan Nasional and PAS cooperating, forcing PH to halt some reforms (such as the ratification of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination). (There is a) real threat in the 122 Malay seats.”

The report is based on a survey carried out in the last week of November 2019.

PH controls 139 of the 222 seats in Parliament, while BN and PAS have 41 and 18, respectively. Independent bloc Gagasan Parti Sarawak has 18.

Merdeka Centre said disputes stemming from racial and religious issues will grow unless the ruling pact addresses their root causes, such as economic woes, jobs and stagnant wages.

PH’s opponents are mounting daily challenges particularly on the Malay front, while populist promises have created false hope, leading to anger, it said.

The report listed the underpinning factors for PH’s lack of support among Malays as:

– The pact lacks Malay grassroots outreach;

– Bersatu, Amanah and PKR’s “uneven” Malay grassroots machinery;

– The Umno and PAS grassroots are intact and possess ideological appeal; and,

– PH’s multicultural messaging is a hard sell among Malays.

Identity politics are consolidating, the report said.

“Umno and PAS realised that by cooperating, they can maximise Malay support and wrest at least 30 parliamentary seats (based on 2018 results).”

Meanwhile, the government is under continuous pressure to stop the erosion of Malay support, and this has created internal conflicts with PH’s non-Malay components.

The report said Umno’s move to work with PAS is meant to consolidate support for the BN lynchpin, whose leaders are “under severe pressure” to prevent a loss of confidence among members.

“(The Umno-PAS alliance) is seen as a cover for leaders to protect personal interests rather than the party. It may give an excuse for disaffected elements to defect from Umno to PH/Bersatu.” – January 5, 2020.