The Malaysian Insight

VOTERS should not expect a return of Pakatan Harapan and its allies to federal power sooner than the 15th general election, said analysts and coalition insiders.

The odds are slim of “Pakatan Plus” wresting control through defections from government parties – like what occurred in late February – or snap polls later this year.

The reason for this is the intractable distrust between two dominant personalities in the opposition, namely former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

It is unlikely that PH parties PKR, DAP and Amanah, along with their allies including Parti Warisan Sabah, will settle on either Dr Mahathir or Anwar as prime minister.

The chances of reconciliation between the two are remote, given their fractious relationship during PH’s 22 months in Putrajaya since winning the May 2018 elections.

It is learnt that even if Anwar agrees to give way to Dr Mahathir, there will be a revolt among PKR lawmakers who do not accept the latter.

As such, said experts, Pakatan Plus appears set to remain on the opposition bench until GE15, which is due in 2023.

“PKR is ready and willing to become an effective opposition party again and bide our time, rather than have to go through the whole drama of trusting Dr Mahathir again,” said a top party leader on condition of anonymity.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali said Pakatan Plus’ future is cloudy.

“Anwar and the whole of PKR now cannot accept Dr Mahathir, and vice versa. The only solution is for Dr Mahathir to give way to Anwar, but that looks unlikely to happen.”

Ever since the PH government was ousted in February, the pact and its partners have been working on cobbling together another alliance to seize Putrajaya from Perikatan Nasional.

The plan is to get the support of more than 112 MPs and move a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. However, negotiations on the alliance are at a dead end as the parties are not unanimous in their choice of prime minister.

Pakatan Plus has the support of 107 MPs, with 42 from DAP, PKR (38), Amanah (11), Warisan (9) and United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (1). Dr Mahathir has six MPs loyal to him.

Besides PKR, the other Pakatan Plus parties back Dr Mahathir as their prime minister candidate.

“There is no road ahead for Pakatan Plus without a reconciliation between Dr Mahathir and Anwar,” said Mazlan.

“There is also no alternative candidate for prime minister because no one in those parties is of the same stature as Anwar and Dr Mahathir.”

Prof James Chin, a political scientist from University of Tasmania, said PH and its allies need both men to counter Muhyiddin.

“PH will resolve their prime minister issue, but it’s a question of timing.

“It is not possible to put out an alternative candidate at present because you need either Dr Mahathir or Anwar to go against Muhyiddin and Najib Razak.”

Former Umno president Najib still wields a lot of influence in the party and among Malay voters. The Barisan Nasional lynchpin is part of PN, with the most MPs in the ruling coalition.

Bury the hatchet

There have been calls, particularly from Umno, for snap polls in the second half of the year.

This is so PN can get an electoral mandate and possibly more seats in Parliament, allowing for a more stable government.

The analysts interviewed by The Malaysian Insight said it is doubtful that Muhyiddin will call snap polls if he fails to reach an agreement on seat allocations with Umno and PAS.

PN has some 30 MPs from Bersatu on Muhyiddin’s side, in addition to lawmakers from Umno, PAS and Gabungan Parti Sarawak.

“Muhyiddin faces the same dilemma as PH, in that he can’t be sure Umno will work with Bersatu in elections because Umno is so confident they can win at least 75 seats by themselves,” said Mazlan.

But in the event that snap polls are called, it will still be difficult for Pakatan Plus.

Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian said any prime minister candidate from PH will have a tough time as Muhyiddin and his PN administration enjoy high approval ratings due to their response to the coronavirus pandemic.

“Muhyiddin is basking in the glow of successfully handling the Covid-19 crisis, and his hefty economic package has helped low-income folk.”

He said the Bersatu president has also demonstrated a steady hand at the country’s helm, compared to the power struggle within PH.

A new prime minister candidate from the opposition will not have time to build a following in the event snap polls are called, he added.

“You need a period of three years for the political dynamics to change for Pakatan Plus to introduce new leaders and build a following.”

Mazlan echoed this sentiment, saying voters can, with time, accept a fresh face.

“But the hurdle is still Dr Mahathir and Anwar. Will they and their supporters accept this? Will PKR, DAP, Amanah and Warisan accept someone besides Dr Mahathir?

“If Dr Mahathir and Anwar believe the candidate is from either camp, they won’t accept him or her, either. So, we are back to square one.

“The key for Pakatan Plus is Dr Mahathir and Anwar burying the hatchet, but it looks like that won’t happen.” – June 22, 2020.