The Malaysian Insight

SOCIAL media campaigns to spoil votes in the 14th general election can result in low voter turnout, which will only make it easier for the Barisan Nasional government to stay in power, say opposition lawmakers and an analyst. 

DAP election strategy director Ong Kian Ming said he believed the spoilt-vote campaign in Chinese social media circles was aimed at voters who felt disappointed that a change of federal government still had not happened.

The campaign might even cause lower voter turnout among Chinese voters, which he said would be disastrous for opposition parties.

“We (Pakatan Harapan) are aware that such a campaign may depress turnout among the Chinese community. 

“This is worse than spoiling one’s vote since most people who bother to show up at the polling booth will likely not spoil his or her vote,” the Serdang MP told The Malaysian Insight. 

“Our strategy is to convince people that their vote very much matters and that spoiling their vote will not only send the wrong message, but very likely help BN hold on to power,” he said. 

Voter turnout in the 2013 general election was 80% of the 13.3 million registered voters then, the highest turnout for a Malaysian election, according to the Election Commission.

The Malaysian Insight yesterday reported that a spoil-your-vote campaign was under way in Chinese social media circles. 

A survey of three Chinese-language Facebook pages that promoted the campaign showed that much of the disenchantment was targeted at DAP, which derives its support mainly from the Chinese-speaking community.

Political analysts have said that the campaign reflected a broader trend of political fatigue and discontent with Malaysian politicians on both sides of the divide, as bickering between them intensifies ahead of GE14 next year.

It could spell doom for the opposition coalition, which needs a higher voter turnout to capture Putrajaya.

Amanah election director Mohd Hatta Ramli said Pakatan must present itself as a viable alternative to counter such movements. 

“This is what we are doing now; we are coming out with a manifesto and future leadership (line-up), like who will be the interim prime minister.”

Hatta, however, said such campaigns had never been effective in Malaysian elections, pointing to the Kuala Kangsar by-election in June last year when BN retained the seat in a four-cornered fight. 

“Even in the Kuala Kangsar by-election, when we saw that the Chinese didn’t really support Pakatan, we didn’t see many spoilt votes. 

“It’s not a phenomenon in Malaysian elections. Even if there is political fatigue, I don’t think voters who are willing to come out to vote will spoil their vote,” he said. 

PKR Youth chief Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad said judging from the party’s engagement with constituents, the spoil-your-vote sentiment does not seem to be widespread.

“We do realise that the mood in 2013 was more positive and hopeful (among the Chinese) but this time around, there is more anger. But they can still be angry and still vote, be it Pakatan, Barisan Nasional or whoever.”

“Channel the anger to make a positive difference for the country,” he said, adding that although Chinese support for Pakatan remained strong, it could not go much higher than the level achieved in the 2013 general election.

Nik Nazmi also urged youth to take a stand before deciding who to vote for.

“Either they want to support BN or Pakatan and push for change in the country. By spoiling their vote, they are in the middle or supporting Najib. 

“Things are not ideal but Pakatan is committed to change,” he said.

What should Pakatan do?

The effect of a spoilt-vote campaign translating into low voter turnout is a possibility, one that Pakatan parties should be talking about more and plan for, should it happen, said Wong Chin Huat, the head of Penang Institute’s political studies programme.

“This may start with less boastful predictions of the GE14 outcome to avoid voters’ overconfidence in the opposition’s chance,” he said. 

“Low turnout will likely hurt the opposition in marginal seats, especially mixed seats to be contested by PKR, Amanah and Bersatu. 

“In 2013, BN won 45% to 55% of votes in 62 parliamentary constituencies in the Peninsula. Thirty-five of these 62 constituencies have at least 20% Chinese voters, and 16 out of these 35 were won by Pakatan Rakyat then. 

“A substantially low Chinese turnout, even in the absence of multi-cornered fights, can hand these 16 marginal mixed constituencies to BN. 

“Of course, Pakatan will stand to lose more if two other factors apply; multi-cornered fights and new constituency boundaries,” he said, referring to the ongoing tussle in the courts over the Election Commission’s proposed redelineation of electoral boundaries, which critics say will favour BN.

Wong also believed that low voter turnout may be “most stark among the Chinese” as this group had shown great enthusiasm to vote for change in GE13. A campaign to cast spoilt ballots is a manifestation of disinterest in voting, he said.

One reason for such a sentiment included a rejection of the new political alignment, in which “enemies had become friends”, in reference to Dr Mahathir’s cooperation with opposition politicians he once jailed and maligned.

Another reason could be the end of the “honeymoon” feeling voters had towards Pakatan parties after ruling at the state level in Penang, Selangor and Kelantan.

“Allegations of arrogance, corruption and incompetence are gaining more traction now than in the early years,” Wong said.

Two more reasons, he added, were the feeling that regime change remained impossible under the current system and that the deliberate work of cybertroopers to amplify negative sentiments towards all parties had caused some voters to feel that their vote would be meaningless.

Wong said the opposition pact should help itself in retaining the support of Chinese voters with a “real reconciliation” between Pakatan and its chairman, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Disenchanted voters have to be convinced that the former strongman’s alliance with the opposition is genuine and meant to benefit the nation, and is not just to win the election, he said.

This was because Dr Mahathir’s leadership, and now, his candidacy as Pakatan’s interim prime minister, is one reason for the backlash by some Chinese who hold the former prime minister responsible for the erosion of institutions and democratic freedoms during his tenure. – December 6, 2017.