The Malaysian Insight

THE opposition lacks the bargaining power to negotiate for a truce with the ruling party, especially when Perikatan Nasional is in a position to pass laws in Dewan Rakyat, said analysts.

They said this in response to a recent call by DAP national organising secretary Anthony Loke for a “ceasefire” between the opposition and the government so members of parliament could concentrate on their work instead of fighting one another.

The Dewan Rakyat records on bills show the government has 113 lawmakers on its side while the opposition has 109. Though the margin is razor-thin, it nevertheless enables the PN government to pass laws.
 
Assistant professor at International Islamic University Malaysia, Lau Zhe Wei said Pakatan Harapan was only focused on opposing the government on major laws and tended to overlook the smaller bills.

“If every opposition lawmaker were to attend parliament every day, it would actually make things difficult for the government and its backbenchers.

“For major issues such as replacing the speaker and the recently passed supplementary budget, the opposition came out in full force, but then so did the government.

This shows that at the end of the day, the government has 113 lawmakers, no matter what,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said, PH was also not proving itself an obstacle to PN on minor issues such as delaying parliamentary motions.

“If they (PH) were to be a nuisance even on minor issues, then the pressure against the government would be much greater.”

The associate professor said if this were the case, PH would have the leverage it needed to negotiate for a truce, but this was not the case now.

“What sort of leverage do they (PH) have? For the major issues, PN has the numbers, and PH isn’t willing to go all out on the smaller issues. So I don’t see how the opposition has any leverage to negotiate,” he said.

However, he said a truce was actually a good idea as it will allow the government to pass important bills with less resistance if both sides are agreeable to it, and there was no need for all PN ministers to vote in Dewan Rakyat every time an important bill comes up.

Lau said the opposition can also negotiate for concessions from the government on important issues to maintain the ceasefire, resulting in a win-win situation.

For now, the analyst said PH can take two paths – the path of reason, where good policies will be supported and bad ones opposed, or the path of disruption, where they will oppose everything for the sake of opposition.

This (disruption) is what PH is doing right now, but I think they are not committing themselves to it. For the big issues, they oppose all of it regardless if it’s good or bad, but they do not have the numbers to make a difference.
 
“Meanwhile, they are not being disruptive on minor issues,” he said, adding that the current strategy leads nowhere.

Lau also said Loke’s two conditions for a truce, which are the re-establishment of several parliamentary select committees and equal funding to both opposition and government lawmakers, are not difficult tasks for PN to achieve.

The analyst said government lawmakers held the majority in parliamentary select committees during the PH government, and this should not be an issue for Perikatan to implement.

“But if you want equal composition in such committees or have the opposition in charge of them, then that will be difficult,” Lau said.

He also said that Perikatan’s current position was untenable in the long term and it should accept such compromises.

“Up until now, I haven’t heard of any bills that failed to pass due to the opposition, there was only once where there weren’t enough lawmakers.

 “If the opposition cannot prevent the laws from passing, then the government does not need to entertain such overtures,” Lau said.

Difficult to execute

Another analyst, Kenneth Cheng of the Agora Society, said Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin does not need a truce as important bills such as additional spending for fighting Covid-19 are still being passed in Dewan Rakyat.

“Even though people say the majority is small, bills are still being passed. Even though there are those within PAS, Umno and Gabungan Parti Sarawak who are critical of Bersatu, they all toe the line when it comes to voting and not a single one has cast protest ballots,” Cheng said.

He said in the UK, from which Malaysia’s parliamentary system is based on, the two major parties, Labour and Conservative, only cooperate on major issues, but even such alliances are temporary.

Cheng said Loke and PH had floated a ceasefire perhaps because of the perception that Muhyiddin was under the thumb of Umno and PAS in Dewan Rakyat, but the analyst said it remains to be seen if the government is truly that fragile at the moment.

He also said the current situation in Dewan Rakyat was extremely polarised and left no room for cooperation between government backbenchers and the opposition.

“If Muhyiddin has to convince the opposition to support government bills, then this makes the Perikatan government even more unstable.

“Such talk of ceasefires are not mere suggestions to smoothen the administrative process, it’s also a message by the opposition to the people that it will put its differences with the government aside in times of crisis.

“But with the polarisation, I don’t think it will succeed,” he said.

Cheng added that while Loke’s suggestion was a good one, it will not be accepted by Muhyiddin.

Meanwhile political analyst and veteran newsman Dr Cheah See Kian said the ceasefire was simply impossible.

It’s not possible. It renders political parties redundant.

“If there’s to be a ceasefire in Dewan Rakyat, then what use is it to form parties?” he said.

Umno MP Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz said a ceasefire was a good idea but difficult to execute.

“Loke’s suggestion will be difficult to implement. Maybe the parties themselves can do it (ceasefire), but to control all 222 members of the Dewan Rakyat is not easy. They all have their own opinions and have the right to speak,” said the former minister.

Asked if Umno MPs will support Loke’s ceasefire, Nazri said: “Very unlikely.”

The Parliamentary Select Committee on Electoral Reform member said the opposition must start from a position of goodwill if a truce is to have any chance of working.

 However, Nazri said, the fact that many Perikatan lawmakers were those who betrayed PH meant that goodwill will be hard to come by. – August 30, 2020.