The Malaysian Insight

MUHYIDDIN Yassin is unlikely to call for snap elections this year with the worsening Covid-19 situation despite his Perikatan Nasional government needing a stronger mandate, said analysts.

They told The Malaysian Insight that the prime minister is aware of the risks of worsening the Covid-19 situation although it first appears that he would call for a general election at year-end.

The next elections are more likely to happen in the first quarter of 2021, giving Muhyiddin’s government time to implement Budget 2021 that is to be tabled in November and to flatten the curve of the pandemic, said analysts.

The next general election is only due in 2023 but Muhyiddin said in September that a win for PN in Sabah could determine his timing. This was when Merdeka Centre said Muhyiddin’s popularity stood at 69%.

While his pact – relabelled as Gabungan Rakyat Sabah – did win the Sabah polls with a simple majority, the nation, however, faced a new wave of Covid-19 infections since then. Muhyiddin on Tuesday admitted that the Sabah elections had contributed to the new infections.

Rumours of snap polls are rife as Muhyiddin’s razor-thin government faces pressure from his allies in Umno as well as the opposition, especially with PKR president Anwar Ibrahim claiming that he has the numbers in the Dewan Rakyat.

“The likelihood of a general election this year is impossible as the Covid-19 cases are on a rise and definitely it will be of high risk,” Universiti Malaya’s Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi told The Malaysian Insight.

Muhyiddin’s government is not stable and has only lasted this long because of the pandemic, said Awang Azman.

“Covid-19 saved Muhyiddin from having an early election and it can prolong the lifetime of PN, maybe until the term ends,” he said.

Prashant Waikar, a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, said the likely window for elections is early next year.

“I believe the earliest window for elections will likely be early next year. If there were plans to hold it sooner, they are probably on hold now because of the resurgence of Covid-19.

“Outside of an election, which I believe will be on Muhyiddin’s terms, I don’t find it likely that there will be yet another change of government,” he said.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun said Muhyiddin would only call for an election after tabling Budget 2021.

“I think the possibility for a snap election is there later this year… early November as you need to pass the budget.

“That is likely if Muhyiddin is not confident of having the votes to pass the budget. Budget is construed as a vote of confidence,” he said.

Advantage Umno

Political scientists also said if elections are called within the next six months, Umno will have a big advantage as the Malay support will swing back to it.

Oh said Umno’s cooperation with PAS would benefit it even further as they would consolidate the votes in areas where the two parties were rivals previously.

“Umno is pushing for snap polls as Umno is confident that by working with PAS, it could garner a lot of Malay votes. In GE14, if they had worked with PAS, they would have garnered 75% of the votes.

“These two parties work closely now as they are confident they are going to win more seats than before. They are really driving this coalition instead of kowtowing to Muhyiddin,” he said.

Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Umno would not throw its support behind Anwar to topple PN.

It is more to force Muhyiddin to call for early elections, he added.

“I agree with Umno to have snap polls. Umno’s ruse of giving support to Anwar is not to support him but to make Muhyiddin lose majority and force him to call for snap polls,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight.

The likelihood of an Anwar-led Pakatan Harapan and other opposition parties winning the next elections is slim as the Malay vote will swing back to PN and Umno, he said.

Prashant said the test run in the Sabah elections with Warisan was proof that PH will not be able to replicate what it did in the 2018 general election, and this would be the similar case in the peninsula.

“I think it’s very likely the opposition will have a tough time in the event of a snap polls. Since PH is likely to perform poorly among most Malays, its best bet may have been to court support in East Malaysia.

“However, the Sabah election results suggest that the state is split between government and opposition. I think the likelihood of PH winning a general election is slim.”

Disadvantage Pakatan

Oh said the combination of Umno and PAS, especially in rural seats, will be formidable and without Bersatu, PH won’t stand a chance in those seats.

“PH can’t win if an election is called, that’s their main concern. They derived their support from mainly urban and suburban seats.

“However, the majority of seats in this country are from the rural constituencies. Umno in collaboration with PAS is really strong in those areas,” he said.

Awang Azman added that the effectiveness of PN’s policies, like the cash injections during the moratorium are working.

“PH is avoiding the elections as PN’s economic plans during the pandemic, especially the moratorium and cash aid helped the people. This was especially proven in Sabah when Warisan lost,” he said.

The emergence of new parties like Pejuang and Muda will also further dent PH’s voter base and benefit the Malay parties, said Hisommudin.

“There are likely to be three- or four-cornered fights in Malay seats in GE15 involving Umno or Barisan Nasional, PN, PH and Pejuang. If this happens, the trend shows that it will benefit Umno.

“Muda will also break PH. Muda would not contest in Malay rural seats. They will contest winnable seats in urban or semi-urban areas. These seats are already being held by PH parties.”

Pejuang is a Malay party formed by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad after he was sacked by Bersatu this year.

Former youth and sports minister Syed Saddiq, who also was sacked by Bersatu, formed a youth-based party named Muda. – October 8, 2020.