The Malaysian Insight

IT may appear that Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has lost his majority after at least eight Umno MPs pulled their support, but he will hold on until a vote next month by gambling on the animosity among his enemies, analysts said.

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said Muhyiddin’s promise to test his majority with a confidence motion in Parliament may not necessarily yield his resignation.

“After Umno’s pullout on Tuesday, it won’t be hard to find 115 to 120 votes against Muhyiddin in Parliament. But what’s next after Muhyiddin has lost the vote?

“Will the Umno group (against Muhyiddin) and the opposition be able to name another prime minister?” said Tunku Mohar.

“If they can’t name one with a clear majority, Muhyiddin could still stay on as prime minister albeit of a minority government.”

Tunku Mohar said although the top two names should be Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim, it will not be easy for the long-time rivals.

“Would Dr Mahathir’s faction want (PKR president) Anwar to be prime minister. Or would Anwar and his supporters let Dr Mahathir be prime minister for a third time?”

Tunku Mohar was commenting on Muhyiddin’s decision not to resign despite knowing that eight Umno MPs have told Dewan Rakyat Speaker Azhar Azizan Harun they no longer supported him as prime minister.

Flanked by 10 MPs, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had on Tuesday announced that he had informed the king “enough” MPs had withdrawn support from Muhyiddin to cause his government to collapse.

But instead of resigning, Muhyiddin appears to have doubled down by promising a confidence motion at the next Parliament sitting on September 6.

“And with that, the ball is back with Zahid, Dr Mahathir and Anwar,” said Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar.

Given their histories, Hisommudin said the Umno group could support Anwar, as alleged last August, but he doubts that the Dr Mahathir faction would do so.

And given Anwar’s history with Dr Mahathir, Hisommudin also doesn’t see Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporting Dr Mahathir.

“I also don’t see Dr Mahathir or PH supporting Zahid or Najib,” said the pollster.

Lessons from ‘Sheraton move’

Muhyiddin has bought time until the September vote to exploit the lack of a prime minister candidate that all his opponents can agree on.

Distrust among party leaders was one of the key factors behind PH’s sudden collapse last year.

The distrust was exemplified when then prime minister Dr Mahathir appointed Mohamed Azmin Ali as a key minister, despite PKR’s objections, and PKR’s Anwar responded by pressing the two-time prime minister on when he would retire.

This soured the relationship between the two and their parties, and Azmin and Muhyiddin exploited it by masterminding the “Sheraton move”.

Although Muhyiddin did not yet possess the majority support at that time, he gambled on two things.

Firstly, Dr Mahathir’s refusal to work with Umno would pave the way for the Langkawi MP to leave Bersatu, leaving Muhyiddin in charge.

And while Muhyiddin may not have predicted Dr Mahathir’s sudden resignation, he gambled on the distrust between the older statesman and Anwar that neither would support each other even when it mattered most.

And so when it was time to meet the Yang di-Pertuan Agong in February last year, PH picked Anwar even when it meant attempting a minority government at the federal level.

PH’s attempt failed and Muhyiddin promptly reaped the rewards.

What matters most?

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi believes that Dr Mahathir, Anwar and Umno factions will have to weigh what is more important to them.

“They have to choose between ousting Muhyiddin and Perikatan Nasional and their personal rivalries.

“Umno has to accept that it will not get the prime minister post as they only have eight to 12 MPs (who don’t support Muhyiddin) but even then Dr Mahathir and Anwar will have to come to terms,” said the Malay ethnic studies lecturer.

On paper, Muhyiddin is now estimated to have 103 votes among the Dewan Rakyat’s 220 MPs, after two lawmakers died last year.

The 103 is after removing 12 from Umno – assumed to be the 11 at Zahid’s press conference on Tuesday, plus Shamsul Anuar Nasarah, the Lenggong MP who resigned as energy and natural resources minister the same day.

PH has 88 while Warisan (8) and Pejuang (4) together have 12. Another five come from PSB (2), Muda (1), Upko (1) and one independent.

In total, those against Muhyiddin would number 117.

In 2020, Muhyiddin and Azmin gambled on the distrust between their bosses and it paid off handsomely.

Will Muhyiddin’s gamble to exploit his enemies’ rivalries succeed? Or will Dr Mahathir, Anwar and Zahid be able to come to terms by September when Parliament convenes? – August 5, 2021.