The Malaysian Insight

THE 23 Umno MPs who defied the party’s orders to pull support from Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will find it difficult to defend their seats in the next election, as most of them are party seats, analysts said.

Nineteen of these seats have a more than 70% Malay electorate, and the four that don’t are still Malay-majority at above 60%.

Voters’ ethnicity of these seats will be important, as these are mostly rural seats where Malay voter loyalty tends to be towards the party and not the candidate, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali said.

“The only exception is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who won Gua Musang in 12 straight elections contesting under Semangat 46 (S46) and Umno,” said the political science analyst.

“Many of the S46 candidates lost in the east coast states despite being helped by PAS in the 1990 and 1995 elections.”

S46 broke off from Umno after Dr Mahathir Mohamad defeated Tengku Razaleigh in a fractious party election in 1988. It then partnered PAS in the 1990 and 1995 elections under the Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah pact, before disbanding and returning to Umno in 1996.

Another splinter party whose candidates have suffered because of voters’ loyalty to the party is Amanah, a breakaway from PAS.

The tendency for party loyalty is particularly strong in the peninsula’s east coast, where despite winning 11 federal seats in 2018, Amanah lost all the state and federal seats it contested in east coast states in the last election.

Mazlan was commenting on the prospects of the 23 Umno MPs in defending their seats in the next election, whether under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner or as independents.

Of the 23, 11 are from the Malay states of Perlis (2), Kedah (1), Kelantan (1), Terengganu (1) and Pahang (6).

The seats with the highest concentration of Malay voters are in Besut (98%) followed by Ketereh (97%) and Putrajaya (95%).

The four seats that are only slightly above the Malay-majority margin of 60% are Sembrong (61%), Bera (62%), Jempol (64%) and Jelebu (65%).

Will PAS help?

Ilham Centre, which specialises in Malay voter analysis, said it will be very interesting to see what PAS will do in these 23 Umno seats whose MPs are sticking with Muhyiddin and PN.

The Islamist party, which is strong in the east coast, has supported PN ever since its first taste of federal power after helping Muhyiddin’s Bersatu topple Pakatan Harapan (PH) in February last year.

PAS is also a member of the PN coalition, while Umno is not, and the collaboration of Umno and PAS had under Muafakat Nasional, a pact sealed in 2019 before the “Sheraton move”, is as good as dead, according to several Umno grassroots leaders interviewed previously.

“Will PAS help Umno as some of these seats are traditionally contested by them too? And will the 23 contest under the PN logo like in Sabah?” Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar asked.

The PN logo made its debut in September last year at the Sabah elections, where party affiliation is less strong and voters choose based on candidate, unlike the trend among rural voters in the peninsula.

PN and Umno agreed avoid overlapping contests in the Sabah polls, but despite winning 11 state seats to Umno’s 14, PN managed to get the chief minister’s post by having a larger force of Bersatu including former Umno reps who joined Muhyiddin’s party, combined with STAR and PBS.

Hisommudin said PAS will play a huge role in helping some of the Umno MPs loyal to PN to defend their seats.

“Take Padang Terap (in Kedah) for example. Mahdzir Khalid has a very good chance of defending this seat if PAS throws their support behind him as Umno and PAS are evenly matched here.

“Mahdzir just has to defend a small portion of his Umno votes while hoping that PAS throws their support behind him. But if there’s a three-cornered fight here again, Mahdzir might lose, while PAS can win,” said the pollster.

In the last election, Mahdzir (16,384 votes) narrowly defeated PAS’ Mohd Azam Aziz (15,285) by 1,099 votes (2.82%) in a three-cornered fight with PH’s Mohd Khairizal Khazali (7,254).

Another interesting seat, said Hisommudin, is Federal Territories Minister Annuar Musa’s Ketereh in Kelantan.

In the last election, Annuar (25,467 votes) defeated PAS’ Wan Ismail Wan Jusoh (20,841) by 4,626 votes (8.71%) in a three-cornered fight with PH’s Mohd Radzi Jidin (6,799), who has since joined PN.

“Will PAS try to win here or give way to Annuar?” said Hisommudin.

According to Hisommudin, in six out of the 23 Umno seats where MPs support Muhyiddin, their closest rival in the last election had been the PAS candidate.

These six are Padang Terap (2.82% winning margin), Besut (6.48%), Rompin (22.91%), Ketereh (8.71%), Kuala Krau (7.51%) and Maran (11.5%).

With the exception of Rompin, where the winning margin is considerable, PAS may not have to surrender these seats to the incumbent as they also stand a chance to win there, Hisommudin added.

Can Umno win against the incumbents?

As for the Umno seats where MPs have pulled support from Muhyiddin and PN, analyst Mazlan said the PN government’s poor record will give Umno an advantage.

“Going by current sentiments against PN, Umno stands a very good chance… especially in Terengganu.

“Voters are unhappy that the PAS state government has cancelled many of the aid programmes that were started by Barisan Nasional after taking over in 2018.

Added to PN’s weak handling of the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic, I believe voters are ready to vote for Umno again after voting against them in 2018,” said Mazlan.

He predicted a 50-50 fight for Umno seats in the east coast states, but the party will likely win back all its seats in the west coast where the incumbents back Muhyiddin.

Hisommudin said that Umno’s seats in Perak, Pahang, Negri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor will not be affected by PAS or PN.

“Although PAS and Bersatu are together now, they haven’t been able to threaten Umno’s dominance in these states.”

Hisommudin added that PN’s spat with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong over who has the right to revoke the emergency ordinances and the use of the Registrar of Societies against Umno will only spur their supporters.

“The basic summary is that it will be hard for the Muhyiddin’s Umno supporters to defend their seats in the Malay-majority constituencies as much of the support depends on the party strength.

“Although there are many factors in an election – including the inconsistency of young voters (below 40), multi-cornered fights, turnout, among others – the point is the sentiments are against the PN government.

“PN would only stand a chance against Umno if public sentiment is on its side. Failing which, this looks like a mission impossible for the Umno 23 who back Muhyiddin,” said Hisommudin. – August 14, 2021.