The Malaysian Insight

BARISAN Nasional should take advantage of its thumping victory in Malacca and call for a general election soon now that its decision to go solo in the elections has been proved right, said observers

They told The Malaysian Insight that the win will also strengthen Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s position in Umno while PKR should hold a post mortem on its dismal performance in the polls.

BN won 21 seats, Pakatan Harapan took five while Perikatan Nasional picked up two in the 28-seat assembly.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said aside from the low voter turnout, a vote swing from fence-sitters was the cause of Pakatan Harapan’s defeat.

He added that Chinese voters had switched to MCA even though DAP had won in the urban areas.

“Of course the low voter turnout is a factor for PH but fence-sitters had switched to BN and PH must look at this seriously. It is an obvious sign,” Hisomuddin said.

“Even though the Chinese votes are split, MCA won two seats. This is not a good sign for PH. Umno and BN need to call for an election as soon as possible because they are in momentum and they need to to keep it up.”

He said Umno does not need to look for a political ally if they can sustain this momentum.

“BN will not go back to Bersatu. Maybe PAS will relook their cooperation in Muafakat Nasional. BN can go solo in the general election,” he said.

Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia agreed but said BN will want to go into the GE without PAS.

He said PH’s loss was due to Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s factor who chose not to side with the opposition coalition in the state election.

“This was an unexpected result, we expected a stiff competition. This shows that Umno’s decision to go solo is right. Zahid’s position has become stronger and Umno leaders who are pro-Bersatu will be shaken,” Hisomuddin said.

“Zahid now has more strength in the upcoming party election and the bloc who supported him as president.

“BN will want to go into GE15 without PAS and Bersatu.

“They want to return as the only dominant Malay party before GE15 and as the only Malay party in government,” the academic said.

“As for PH, those who voted for the coalition previously did so for Dr Mahathir. Without Dr Mahathir the Malays have left PH. PH needs a new strategy to increase Malay support,” he added.

The state election was held after four assemblymen – Idris Haron (BN-Sungai Udang), Nor Azman Hassan (BN-Pantai Kundor),  Norhizam Hassan Baktee (Independent-Pengkalan Batu) and Noor Effandi Ahmad (Bersatu-Telok Mas), withdrew their support for chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali last month, leading to the dissolution of the legislative assembly.

The state has 476,037 voters. The Election Commission said voter turnout was 65.85%.

It has been said that a low turnout could benefit BN. In GE14 in 2018, when PH won the state, voter turnout was 84.7%.

Najib played key role 

James Chin of Tasmania University said Umno supporters came out to vote for the part,y adding that former Umno president and prime minister Najib Razak played a key role.

“Umno did an outstanding job because their hardcore supporters came out to vote for the party.

“Thanks to Najib, he played a key role and this will lift his image in the party and will also pose a challenge to (Prime Minister) Ismail Sabri Yaakob,” Chin said.

Hisomuddin on the other hand said Najib played his role in Malacca in the absence of Zahid, but he may have had a little impact.

Mazlan added that Najib’s influence is still strong among the Malays.

“He may have integrity issues but he made himself popular again. The RM100 million property issue had no effect although it was played out during the election,” said Mazlan.

What’s left for PAS?

Mazlan then predicted PAS might want to go back to Umno after suffering another huge defeat in Malacca.

PAS did not win a single seat in the state in the 2018 elections and did not succeed either this time with PN.

“PAS may go back to Muafakat Nasional. Umno has won big, it can govern without any other Malay party, in Terengganu, Kedah, and Kelantan, Umno is as strong as PAS,” he said.

Chin said Umno might not be in a forgiving mood after what the Islamist party had done.

“Umno may not be forgiving. I think it will not accept PAS although some in both parties want Muafakat Nasional to remain.”

Tunku Mohar Mokhtar at the International Islamic University of Malaysia felt Umno was aided by its strong grassroots.

He said Umno was likely will go solo in the GE and that it would reconsider at its pact with PAS.

“Umno will not work with Bersatu anymore. With PAS, they can choose not to work with the Islamist party since their strongholds rarely overlap,” Tunku Mohar said.

“As for PH, it is too early to say voters have rejected them. Maybe they need to start listening more to the coalition members and grassroots.” – November 21, 2021.