The Malaysian Insight

PRIME Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob may find it hard to not dissolve Parliament this year for the 15th general election (GE15) following Umno’s constitutional amendments on Sunday, analysts said.

“The amendments mean that party polls will be held only after GE15,” said International Islamic University Malaysia’s Lau Zhe Wei.

“They also mean that Ismail Sabri cannot challenge the president post before GE15. As such, he is forced to follow the leadership’s decision to dissolve Parliament.”

Ismail will likely dissolve Parliament once the Putrajaya-Pakatan Harapan memorandum of understanding ends, he added.

“I think we can expect GE15 in the third quarter of this year.”

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi made a major political win on Sunday, after party delegates unanimously voted to amend the party constitution on party polls.

Following this, the Umno Supreme Council can now postpone party polls for up to 18 months or six months after a GE.

Zahid and future Umno leaders can now nip any challenge against the leadership during party polls for up to five years depending on the national polls.

“Ismail is being pressured to dissolve Parliament, while Zahid stays as president and can decide on GE15 candidates, including Ismail’s candidature,” said Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali.

“But what more can Ismail do?”

It is pointless for him to wait out the leadership as the supreme council can easily postpone party polls till after GE15, he added.

Ismail was made prime minister after Zahid’s faction ousted the former prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin.

Good for Zahid

What is good for Zahid is not necessarily good for Umno, said Mazlan.

“Party polls are held so ordinary members can choose the leadership and direction of the party.

“Allowing the leadership to stay up to five years is denying others of challenging the incumbents.

“This prevents more capable leaders from taking over, especially when the leadership has integrity issues.”

Mazlan said most political parties hold polls in three-year cycles, but the recent Umno amendments will allow its current leadership to remain in power for up to five years.

Zahid was elected president in June 2018, after GE14. Umno was supposed to hold party polls in 2021, but the supreme council decided to postpone it to the end of 2022.

His faction is pushing for national polls to be held this year so the current leadership can decide on GE15 candidates.

Parliament’s term will expire only in July next year. The 14th Parliament held its first meeting on July 16, 2018.

Lau said the Zahid faction’s “stability excuse” to rationalise the amendment is weak.

“Postponing party polls on the pretext of stability is undemocratic.

“Particularly, when most of major political parties have held or are holding elections before GE15.

“The amendments are more to preserve Zahid’s power than to stabilise the party.”

PKR, PAS, DAP, Bersatu and Amanah have all held or are holding party polls.

PAS, Bersatu and Amanah held theirs last year, while DAP had its polls in March. PKR is also currently holding its polls ahead of GE15. – May 17, 2022.