The Malaysian Insight

ECONOMIC considerations will take a back seat when it comes to determining when the next general election will be called, experts said.

The main factor will be political and whether Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob will keep his job.

Economist Yeah Kim Leng of Sunway University said while it is conducive to hold a general election when the economy is performing, this may not be the case for Ismail.

“Of course it’s conducive for the ruling party to hold an election when the economy is doing well. An expanding economy is a tailwind to the election outcome,” Yeah told The Malaysian Insight.

“In the case of Malaysia there are compounding factors. When we see political infighting among different groups within the ruling party, there are differences whether the coalition is ready for an election.

“Economic consideration will be less important as a factor to trigger the election.”

Yeah said it is likely the economy’s positive growth will sustain until next year, giving Ismail time to call for an election then.

“The window is still open until next year. The global economic condition and the likelihood of a global inflation, at current estimates we are still hoping for soft landing.

“If this materialises, the condition will chart an economic growth that may not be a main issue when calling for a GE.”

Bank Negara Malaysia said that Malaysia’s GDP is expected to grow between 5.3 and 6.3% this year, up from 3.1% last year.

Growth would be underpinned by the continued expansion in external demand, lifting of containment measures, reopening of international borders, and further improvement in labour market conditions.

For the second quarter of 2022, Malaysia’s economy posted a 8.9% growth as domestic demand continued to strengthen, underpinned by steady recovery in labour market conditions and policy support.

The central bank said the higher growth was also reflective of normalising economic activity as the country moved towards Covid-19 endemicity and reopened its borders.

With growth in the first half of this year at 6.9%, the central bank said the economy is projected to expand further for the remainder of the year.

Economic growth not felt by the people

Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, a political analyst from the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said while Malaysia’s economy is experiencing growth, this may not be reflective of what the general public is experiencing.

“What the government needs to consider is whether the effects of the positive indicators are felt by the people,” Tunku Mohar said.

“I think the people do not experience improvement in their quality of life, where prices of essential items are still perceived to be high and wages remain stagnant.

“In this event, the government’s claim that the economy is improving would not convince the voters.”

According to the Statistics Department, Malaysia’s inflation increased 3.4% to 127.4 in June 2022 as against 123.2 in the same month of the preceding year.

The Food index increased 6.1% and remained the main contributor to the rise in the inflation in June.

Most recently, the government also scrapped the subsidy for bottled cooking oil and set a new ceiling price for chicken and eggs.

Will Ismail Sabri survive?

James Chin of the University of Tasmania said that whether or not an election will be called soon will hinge on Ismail coming out victorious.

“The consideration is whether he will survive, post-election,” Chin said.

“Everyone is thinking that Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) will do well. So it is a question of whether he keeps his job. That will be the number one factor.

“Secondly, of course, he will be thinking about what former prime minister Najib Razak and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi can do to him if he calls for election now and BN wins big.

“If the court upholds a guilty verdict (in Najib’s SRC International Sdn Bhd trial), then Najib and Zahid’s groups will be out, and Ismail can call for an election and he will likely end up as party president.”

Both Najib and Zahid are facing numerous charges for corruption with the latter convicted in his part in SRC International.

The Federal Court yesterday quashed Najib’s appeal and upheld his sentence in the SRC International case and unanimously dismissed the former prime minister’s appeal. The apex court ordered the Pekan lawmaker to begin his 12-year jail sentence immediately.

Umno has been putting pressure on Ismail to call for an election as soon as possible. This is seen as a ploy to help those in the party who are facing court cases.

In an emergency meeting at the party’s headquarters on Monday, a majority of Umno division heads agreed to urge the prime minister to call for the next general election as soon as possible. – August 24, 2022.