The Malaysian Insight

PERIKATAN Nasional (PN) will be the underdog going into the next general election because PAS is the only party in the coalition with a strong election campaign infrastructure, political analysts said.

Given that PN is also relying predominantly on Malay votes, it will have a fight on its hands as it goes up against Barisan Nasional (BN).

It will also have an uphill battle enticing non-Malay votes away from Pakatan Harapan, they said.

Professor James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said if the next general election takes place soon, it will not look good for the PN.

“It is obvious that only PAS has a strong election infrastructure. Bersatu is really hit and miss in this regard and Gerakan is in the ICU, not dead, but nearly dead,” Chin told The Malaysian Insight.

“The timing of the election is of course very important. If it is held this year, of course Bersatu will have less time to prepare.

“It looks very likely that elections will be at the end of October or early November, the latest.”

“Even this national convention they have put together, you can see that they were not in high spirits compared to Umno.

“I think most people will write off Bersatu, but it is difficult to predict the impact until the election campaign gets underway.

“Yet, at the moment it looks very much like they are the underdog.”

PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin said the coalition was ready to face the election as Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob is expected to cave into pressure from Umno and dissolve parliament soon.

Muhyiddin said he is confident voters would not allow BN to return to power.

PN – comprising Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan – contested all 56 seats for the recent Johor election but won only three. Prior to this, it contested 28 seats in Malacca but won only two.

Political analyst Oh Ei Sun said by virtue of PN’s performance in Johor and Malacca, it looks like the coalition will not feature heavily in the next election.

“PN performed almost as well as BN in the 2020 Sabah election when Muhyiddin was PM – ie, when the two coalitions negotiated seats with each other – but badly in Malacca and Johor when PN went up against BN.

“It would appear that the chances for them to win a significant number of seats in the coming general election are quite small,” Oh, from Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said.

Meanwhile, International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said that PN will find it hard to secure votes, regardless of demographic.

“PN depends only on Malay votes, but there are many parties also doing the same.

“PAS is probably the strongest, but its strength is mainly in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah,” Tunku Mohar said.

In terms of non-Malay votes, Gerakan alone will not be enough to help the coalition, he said.

“Bersatu will find it difficult to win the same number of seats it won in 2018, without the non-Malay votes that the other PH parties helped it to secure.

“Furthermore, the parliamentarians and assemblymen who joined the party from their former parties will find it tough to help the PN win those seats.”

However, Tunku Mohar did not discount that PN may play the role of vote splitter, much like PAS in 2018 where it was the source of multiple three-cornered fights.

“PN may split the votes between BN and PH. It’s difficult to predict that it can win the next election,” he added. – August 27, 2022.