The Malaysian Insight

THERE are no circumstances in which the opposition parties will be desperate enough to name Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister for the third time if they win the next general election, political analysts said.

Given what the veteran statesman has had his second outing as prime minister, they said there is a certain amount of wariness, not just on the part of the politicians but also among the public.

Others, however, said that if Dr Mahathir’s Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) can secure at least five seats in the next polls with the condition that no coalition has won enough seats to form the government, he could prove to be the kingmaker.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said Malaysians in general are very disappointed with Dr Mahathir.

“For a lot of people, there is a sense of wariness if he is even considered (as a PM candidate for a third time),” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“I can’t see a political scenario where he will be asked to form the government for the third term.

“People’s idea is that he was given a second chance, and rather than reform Malaysia, he ruled Malaysia similar to the first time around.

“I think most Malaysians believe that his time has passed and that he should pass the baton to the younger generation.”

On Monday, the 97-year-old Langkawi MP said if there were no other suitable candidates after the next general election, he would be willing to offer himself.

Dr Mahathir said if the people keep insisting that he should take up the position again, then he had no choice but to accept it for the third time in his political career.

The nonagenarian held the post of prime minister for 22 years the first time around from July 1981 to October 2003, while he was still with Umno.

In the 2018 general election, he joined forces with the opposition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), and led them to a historic win.

He was then sworn in as PM for the second time. He held the post from May 2018 to March 2020, when he resigned after the Sheraton Move, which saw PH collapse after 22 months in office.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar also agreed that chances are slim for the Pejuang chairman.

“Unlike before GE14, Dr Mahathir now lacks the star power he once had. There is no big issue that can rally the opposition into one tent,” Tunku Mohar said.

Dr Mahathir’s Malay-Muslim centric platform is also a put-off to many other parties who are more multiracial, he said.

“While he is consistent in his anti-corruption narrative, he has also driven away other possible supporters.

“Pakatan Harapan seems to disagree with his Malay dominance platform, while Perikatan Nasional has been attacked fiercely by Dr Mahathir that no conciliation seems to be likely at this point,” he said.

“The existing political coalitions do not see Dr Mahathir as a unifying factor, nor a powerful personality that can tilt the political balance anymore.”

Kingmaker

Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia is more optimistic that if the GTA chairman can secure at least five seats in the general election, then there is a chance that he may hold the trump card.

On August 4, Dr Mahathir formed GTA, comprising Pejuang, Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia, Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional.

He had previously said GTA would contest 120 parliamentary seats in the peninsula, which is where the majority of Malay voters are, and where Umno had contested.

“If GTA faces a four-cornered-fight and can win at least five seats, then they can be kingmakers,” Mazlan said.

“Let’s say PH wins 110, BN wins 70 and PN wins 70, in that situation, no one has a simple majority, then Dr Mahathir stands a chance.

“He is an experienced statesman. Following his resignation, his successors are not any better.

“His track record as a PM has been good, maybe the people would support his return; it is not impossible.”

Mazlan said that Dr Mahathir still holds a big influence in Kedah, which could secure him at least three seats.

“GTA will most likely win the Langkawi, Kubang Pasu and Jerlun seats. GTA could also win in a few other places in Kedah,” he said. – September 29, 2022.