The Malaysian Insight

IT makes no difference to Pakatan Harapan’s chances in the general election if the three Malay parties of Umno, Bersatu and PAS are divided, observers said.

They said PH was trounced in the Johor and Malacca elections even though Umno, PAS and Bersatu stood against one another.

They said there are no big issues, like the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal, that can be used to rile up the voters.

Merdeka Center for Opinion Research senior manager Tan Seng Keat said he does not believe PH will gain an advantage from the Malay political squabble.

He said there are no big issues the political parties could use to sway public opinion against the government.

In such a situation, Umno and Bersatu, with their large power base, have the edge.

“But will they be able to get the fence-sitters??”

Tan said Umno faces a tough time in the polls.

He said the party has been tainted by the actions of its its top leadership, including former prime minister Najib Razak, who has been jailed for corruption, and party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is standing trial for graft.

The party’s sometimes extreme intolerance of other religions, have made it unattractive to fence-sitters, who will likely favour PH, Tan said.

He said there is a likelihood the fence-sitters will not vote.

“They’re just tired of all the politicking. They are more concerned about the economic challenges they are facing,” he said.

“PH has to ensure a higher voter turnout because Umno and PAS have a much bigger base of hardcore supporters who will vote, come rain, sunshine or even floods.

“Those who voted for Bersatu in 2018 were largely floating voters who may not vote for the party now.”

Dr Lau Zhe Wei, political scientist at the International Islamic University Malaysia, said PH cannot afford to have the Malay parties united.

“Take a look back at the Malacca and Johor elections; Umno, PAS and Bersatu fielded candidates against one another but that division did not help PH.

“If Umno and Bersatu were to cooperate in the polls, PH would be in trouble.

“But even if Umno, Bersatu and PAS should continue to fight and bicker, it still will make no difference (to PH).”

Acting PAS youth chief Afnan Hamimi Taib Azamudden has warned against division among the Malay parties.

“Malay-Muslim political leaders should prioritise the Malay-Muslim agenda and put aside personal interests. This agenda will not succeed if Malay political leaders continue to make the same mistake of focusing only on issues of personal interest,” Afnan said.

PH multi-racial base

Political analyst Vincent Thock Kiah Wah said the multi-racial PH coalition will benefit if the Malay vote is split.

As the Malay parties continue to feud, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin has stoked the flames by calling Umno the party’s number one enemy in the polls.

PAS, which has said it will stand in 30 Malay-majority parliamentary seats, is set on a collision course with the once-dominant Umno.

The Islamists has continued to play both sides, pandering to both Bersatu and Umno.

PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan has said the party’s door is still open for Umno, adding it is PH who is the enemy.

Thock said PH can count on the support of its multi-racial base and dissatisfied members of the warring Malay parties.

However, he warned that the people are not as unhappy with the government as they used to be.

“The people are not as dissatisfied with the government as they were in 2018 and there is a lack of big motivation to get rid of the government.

Thock said if an election is called in the next two months, PH must make every effort to win more support.

He said to win, PH must win over about 30% of the votes for Umno and 80% of the non-Malay votes.

“Simply put, the PH must present a strong argument for why it should be given a second chance.” – October 8, 2022.