The Malaysian Insight

UMNO’S failure to rope in the Malay votes in the coming state elections in Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang could undermine Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government, political observers said.

They said critics who opposed Umno’s cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the federal unity government would be emboldened to undermine Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s position in the party – a move that would have a rippling effect on the unity government that includes Umno’s sworn enemy DAP.

Political analyst Liew Wui Chern of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman said if Umno fails to regain ground against the other Malay-based parties – Bersatu, PAS or even Pejuang – and secure the Malay votes, it would have a detrimental effect on the stability of the current federal government.

The lecturer said the poor performance could trigger further dissent in Zahid’s leadership from BN component parties – MIC, MCA and particularly Umno – who are strongly opposed to working with PH.

“They will then have the excuse to say that this alliance with PH is no good for BN.”

Liew said the unhappiness could undermine Zahid’s hope to stay on as president at the party’s general assembly.

“Zahid could be challenged. So the bottom line is if the election results in the three states are not favourable to Umno or PH, it could destabilise the unity government,” he added, with a finger pointing to BN as the source of the problem.

Liew said on the other hand, PKR members could also say Umno or BN is not an asset that PH could count on.

Umno’s decision to cooperate with PH for a unity government, had sparked long and heated debates among its grassroots supporters.

Liew said if PH wants to see out its five-year term, the ruling coalition must bring back a significant number of the Malay votes in the state elections in the three states, plus that in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

The state elections are expected to be held after Hari Raya.

Liew did not consider the results of Kedah and the two east coast states as key in his analysis. Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are currently under PAS rule.

He said if the results of the 15th general election are used as a yardstick, he does not believe PAS could be dethroned in the predominantly Malay states.

“There will not be any change in those three states. But no matter what the results, the threat it would pose on the unity government would only be minimal.”

But in the states of Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan, there must be a return of the Malay votes, Liew said.

“The signs must be there. It might not be much but as long as there are signs of a return, it is good enough.”

He said if PH were to lose another 10% of the Malay votes in the three states, it could expose the coalition to moves to unseat them from power.

Dr Cheah See Kian concurred with Liew’s assessment and said PH’s performance in the Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan elections is a key test for Anwar.

“It is imperative that PH hold on to the three states, especially Penang and Selangor.”

He said if PH lose ground to BN or if their performance is not convincing, “they will lose face and the days of PH will be numbered”.

Anwar must give it his all to show his charisma and influence in Penang and Selangor to win more Malay voters to support Umno, he added.

He said the state elections are therefore very important to PH’s survival.

Anwar had reportedly informed key coalition leaders to get ready for the state elections that could be called in June.

“We haven’t stopped working since GE15. We have been working hard to prepare for state polls,” a source told The Malaysian Insight.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had disclosed the allocation of seats among Perikatan Nasional (PN) component parties in the six state elections was 80% complete.

He said at a press conference at the Gerakan headquarters in Penang that PN member parties had discussed seat allocation as early as last year’s national election.

“The preparation for state elections and the allocation of seats became the basis of our discussion at that time, and we can say that we are 80% done, and then we will study in detail the strategy to deal with the state elections.”

Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu did not dissolve their respective state assemblies to hold their state elections simultaneously with last year’s general election.

Only Pahang, Perak and Perlis dissolved their state assemblies to have their state elections.

This means the six states must hold state elections before September this year.

Sabah, Malacca, Johor and Sarawak have held state elections before the November 19, 2022 polls. – January 12, 2023.