The Malaysian Insight

POLITICAL analysts predict a lower voter turnout at the 14th general election compared with 2013, despite the Election Commission’s target of repeating the last election’s historic high of 85%.

They cited political fatigue, especially among outstation and youth voters, as the main reason. There were 14.97 million registered voters as of the last quarter of 2017.

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research manager Tan Seng Keat said voter turnout would be within the range of 75% to 78%.

This would still be higher than 72.2% in 2008, the year now marked as a watershed election when Barisan National lost its super majority in Parliament and control of four additional states.

Apart from national sentiments, local politics and parties’ mobilisation power would also influence the voter turnout, said Tan.

“A more accurate prediction is only possible after political parties go into full election mode. Johor is likely to have a higher voter turnout due to the contest between MCA and DAP’s heavyweights in Ayer Hitam and other focus areas (in the state),” said Tan.

Southern University College General Studies Centre director Dr Phoon Wing Keong agreed that the big fights in Johor could help boost voter turnout in the state.

He said Chinese voters, who tend to be pro-opposition, would be inspired to vote if they sensed a Malay tsunami coming.

“The fight between DAP’s Liew Chin Tong and MCA deputy president Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam, a Malay-majority seat, would generate excitement and attract them to vote,” said Phoon.

In Kelantan, PAS will need to mobilise outstation voters to return and keep the Islamist party in power.

“Usually the locals tend to vote for BN, while the outstation voters will vote for PAS,” said Merdeka Centre’s Tan.

In Terengganu, internal sabotage among Umno factions contributed to a disproportionately high rate of spoiled votes in certain constituencies in the last elections.

Swing and outstation voters

Tan added that the federal opposition should remember its failure to mobilise swing voters in 2004, contributed to its humiliating defeat.

BN, led by then newly minted prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, had a resounding victory by winning 198 (90%) of the 222 federal seats in 2004, with 64% of the popular vote.

“BN has more resources as the incumbent. They will hire motorcycles and buses to ferry the voters during elections, especially elderly voters who tend to be pro-BN,” said Tan.

The scenario changed in 2008 and 2013 when Pakatan Rakyat (PR) successfully capitalised on anti-BN sentiments and persuaded swing voters to come out in droves to vote for them.

In 2008, PR won five states and denied BN a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat by winning 82 seats. The now defunct coalition improved its result in 2013 by winning the popular vote and 89 federal seats. 

Tan said the opposition must convince these swing voters to vote for them again in GE14.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Pakatan Harapan (PH) must resolve its seat negotiations in Malay-majority seats to win over the confidence of swing voters in rural areas.

“Urban voter turnout is already at its peak, unless rural voter turnout increases, the overall voter turnout will not change,” he said.

He said the voter turnout rate would decline to about 75% unless the opposition can successfully mobilise youth voters aged between 21 and 39.

“A lot of the youth are outstation voters. If they can be inspired, persuaded to ‘balik kampung’ to vote, it will help raise voter turnout.”

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political lecturer Liew Wui Chern predicted a 70% turnout, blaming news of infighting in the opposition as the cause of political fatigue among voters.

He said PH could help generate voters’ interest and inspire confidence by announcing its shadow cabinet.

“There have been calls for them to announce their shadow cabinet even before the launch of their manifesto,” said Liew. – March 21, 2018.