The Malaysian Insight

MUSTAPA Mohamed and Anifah Aman’s exit from Umno would trigger a domino effect with more leaders heading for the door, analysts said.

And the push factor for many of them is not just Umno’s desire to forge a new alliance with PAS but other reasons building up in the party over the last few years.

Those leaving Umno will join one of the Pakatan Harapan parties to continue their political careers, they said.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Umno’s cooperation with PAS was not the main reason the senior duo left the party.

“I am sure Tok Pa (Mustapa) was not unhappy about the cooperation between Umno and PAS. 

“Party sources said the Jeli MP was unhappy with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd issue, which continues to haunt the party.

“After Tok Pa’s exit, more MPs will follow suit. They are expected to join Bersatu,” Awang Azwan told The Malaysian Insight. 

Mustapa said on Tuesday he was leaving Umno after 40 years in the party as it has lost direction. He, however, did not disclose his future plans. 

Anifah, the Kimanis MP, yesterday followed suit, blaming Umno for not fulfilling the terms in the Malaysia Agreement 1963. 

This was a moral victory for PH, Awang Azwan said, when someone like Mustapa, who is generally seen as a clean figure, quits Umno.

“Logically, he should be headed to the ruling pact. 

“This also is a big blow to Umno,” he said, adding that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamid should go into damage-control mode. 

The exit of Mustapa and Anifah could also affect Sabah and Sarawak, said Universiti Malaysia Sarawak Social Science lecturer Prof Dr Jeniri Amir. 

“I believe their actions will have a domino effect when other lawmakers, whether assemblymen or parliamentarians, follow suit, as their desire to quit is given a boost,” Jeniri told The Malaysian Insight. 

Anifah, a former foreign affairs minister, has threatened to quit Umno several times in the past.

Jeniri said Sabah Umno lawmakers believe they could function better outside Barisan Nasional as their numbers were fewer.

“Anifah was among the more critical Sabah leader. Other Umno Sabah leaders will copy his move, for sure,” he said. 

Both analysts agreed that for Anifah and Mustapa to be effective, they should join ruling parties like Bersatu, led by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Awang predicts that Mustapa will join Bersatu as he has strong links to former finance minister Daim Zainuddin. 

“Tok Pa will join Bersatu because he used to be Daim’s political secretary. Daim also helped him become a senator, deputy minister and contest in Jeli.”

The professor added that this also was a power move by Dr Mahathir to curb Anwar Ibrahim’s influence should the PKR president-elect win the Port Dickson by-election. 

“This is also the message that PH is strong and any other political alliance would not work as long as Dr Mahathir is prime minister.”

Meanwhile, political analyst Ahmad Atory Hussain said it is high time that Umno undergoes a total revamp.

“The only visible change is Najib (former president Najib Razak) quit as president after the GE14 defeat. This is not enough. The people want to see a total change among the Umno leaders.

“They would also like to see the exit of Najib’s henchmen. They do not want Zahid, they would rather have Khairy Jamaluddin or someone like Mustapa take over,” he said.

Mustapa and Anifah’s departure now leaves Umno with 49 lawmakers and BN, as a whole, 52 seats in the 222-member Dewan Rakyat. – September 20, 2018.